Photo : AP / Alex Brandon / RT
03 March 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #451
War in Ukraine: Day 372
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 02 March, Ukrinform reported on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announcement to provide Gepard self-propelled guns, and Iris-T systems. He also assured the production of projectiles and spare parts for Ukraine. Till now close to 3,000 Ukrainians have been trained in Germany, which has become the central hub for training.
On 02 March, Ukraine’s Finance Ministry reported on the total borrowings of Ukraine against the state budget. The borrowings was summed to UAH 226.8 for the period January – February 2023, accounting for 58.8 per cent of the budget. According to the report, the allocation for placement bonds was increased to UAH 84 billion, military government bonds was for UAH 21.8 billion and UAD 142.8 billion was raised through external support. For 2022 state borrowings to the state budget amounted to UAH 1,261.1 billion.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 02 March, RT reported on the meet between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during the G20 summit in New Delhi. During the meeting Blinken urged Russia to sign back to the START treaty, while Lavrov stressed on the “hybrid war” of the US on Russia as deterrence to discussion.
On 02 March, Russia’s Bryansk Region Governor, reported on Ukraine strike in Russia’s border villages Lyubechane and Sushany. According to the Governor: “..today a sabotage-reconnaissance group intruded from Ukraine.” On the same, the Federal Security Service (FSB) confirmed that the situation in Bryansk was in control but two were reported to have injured. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin called the incident as “terrorist attack.” He did not assert it to be Ukraine but issued a warning.
On 02 March, Bank of Russia Head Elvira Nabiullina, stated that the sanctions imposed by the West would not create shock for Russia’s banking system. According to her, the banks that were subject to sanctions had adjusted and remaining had enough time to reduce the assets that were restricted by sanctions. She added that, it can impact the “dynamics of the banking sector and to some extent Russia’s economy. Although the measure taken by Russia was not disclosed, Nabiullina says that they are being take to reduce the impact of sanctions.
On 02 March, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson condemned the movement of “Serbia-made ammunition” into Ukraine. In a statement: “This is too serious an issue, with implications on Russian-Serbian relations, to react reflexively.” In the report, Krusik weapons works had sold rockets to a Turkish which was reported to have sent into Ukraine through Slovakia. RT reported that the 122-millimeter projectiles used in M-21 multiple rocket launcher is used by Russia and Ukraine. In response, representative from Krusik countered saying the sale contract included a condition of being used by the Turkish and not re-export. On the same lines, Serbia’s Defence Minister denied such export of weapons to Ukraine.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 02 March, UK intelligence in its daily update observed how increasing temperatures during spring would form “muddy conditions” which will restrict cross country movement. This is seen as an advantage for those defending and impose limitations in movement of heavy armoured vehicles, especially in Bakhmut.
On 02 March, Olaf Scholz in his address to the parliament urged China not to provide weapons to Russia in the Ukraine war. Instead he urged China to use its influence in making Russia withdraw. He stressed that there can be no peace without inclusion of Ukrainians and added: “The government I lead never takes decisions on arms deliveries lightly.”
On 02 March, during the G20 meeting organized by India, the major discussion among the Foreign Minister weighed on Ukraine war. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “We should not allow issues that we cannot resolve together to come in the way of those we can.” EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell expressed his confidence in India to take efforts in making Russia understand about bringing the war to an end. On the same Blinken said: “If Russia — President Putin — were genuinely prepared to engage in meaningful diplomacy necessary to end the aggression, of course we'd be the first to work to engage, but there's zero evidence of that.”
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 02 March, the IMF mission on Ukraine stated that from 08 March to 15 March, discussion on future cooperation programme will be discussed. According to the Finance Minister parameters to establish a full programme will be discussed during the meet along with terms and scope.
References
“State borrowings to budget reach UAH 226.8B since year-start - Finance Ministry,” Ukrinform, 02 March 2023
“Scholz announces more Gepard, Iris-Т systems for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 02 March 2023
“Russia comments on ‘Serb weapons’ in Ukraine,” RT, 02 March 2023
“Blinken and Lavrov meet at G20,” RT, 02 March 2023
“No shock to economy expected from new sanctions – Bank of Russia,” RT, 02 March 2023
“Russia's FSB issues statement on Ukrainian saboteur attack,” RT, 02 March 2023
“Russian governor reports Ukrainian attack on border villages,” RT, 02 March 2023
“Germany's Scholz urges China not to send Russia weapons,” Deutsche Welle, 02 March 2023
“UK MOD Intelligence update,” Twitter, 02 March 2023
“India's Modi calls for unity at G20 meeting,” Deutsche Welle, 02 March 2023
“IMF mission to Ukraine set to kick off work in Warsaw March 8 - finance minister,” Ukrinform, 02 March 2023
IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis
FRANCE
Survey reveals fall in popularity of Macron over passing of pension reform scheme
On 02 March, Les Echos reported on an exclusive survey conducted by the Elabe Barometer calculating popularity and trust in the French leader. Emmanuel Macron saw a decline in popularity and trust in his pension reforms this was furthered by far-right opposition voicing their dissent. The Trust rating has seen a minimal rise of two per cent for Macron after the gradual decline since the pension reform announcement. The distrust is still at large with 63 per cent of French people doubting his leadership. The drop out of favour can be seen in the age group of 50-56-year-old individuals, mostly close to the retirement population as most of the population can't forget the tensions the reforms brought. (Isabelle Ficek “EXCLUSIVE SURVEY - Emmanuel Macron stems his decline in public opinion thanks to retirees and the right” Les Echos, 02 March 2023)
GERMANY
Federal Statistical Office estimates 23 per cent of its population to be immigrants
On 03 March, Frankfurter Allgemeine reports that according to Federal Statistical Office 23 per cent of the population today migrated to Germany since the 1950s. In 2021 around 14.2 million people migrated to Germany making it 17.3 per cent, and now with their descendants born in Germany adding another 4.7 million people saw a 5.7 per cent rise. While comparing to other EU countries Germany stood in seventh place with an above-average rate than their 27 member states. This was a micro census based on a sample survey, the study focused on two groups of immigrants the ‘first generation’ where both parents came here in the 1950s and the ‘second generation’ the descendants of the above immigrants, the study purposefully opted out the census including single immigrant parents and is yet to study the effect of Ukraine war on German immigration trend. (“In Germany, 23 percent of the population have immigrated since 1950, ” Franffurter Allgemeine, 3 March 2023)
SWEDEN
Migration Minister proposes way to increase support for migrants who return voluntarily
On 01 March, Swedish Migration Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard proposed to work on ways to increase ‘voluntary return migration.’ Malmer states that the return of migrants has been poorly treated and not focused upon as there has been a large influx of migrants who were not able to integrate themselves into Swedish society. There is a proportionately large population of Sweden’s around 20 per cent that live abroad with 33 per cent having at least one parent aboard. The proposal stressed that those people who want to go back to their home countries including Swedish natives should be provided with information and support. This move has been criticized by several as a gambit to push fair right political agenda. The migration issues can strain the Swedish government financially as voluntary migration relies on economic incentives with financial support to leave Sweden. ( Charles Szumski, “Sweden’s new ‘voluntary return’ migration push raises eyebrows ” Euractiv, 2 March 2023)
REGIONAL
Turkey accused for committing crimes against humanity by Belgium firms and NGOs
On 02 March, Euractiv reports that a complaint has been filed against Turkey for “Crimes against Humanity.” The petitioners are the Belgian law firm Van Steenbrugge Advocaten (VSA), the Belgium-based NGO Turkey Tribunal, and the European judges’ association Magistrates. International Criminal Court finds evidence against Erdogan regime for crimes committed after a failed coup initiated by a Belgium-based firm and NGO. It is estimated that around 200,000 people were tortured, disappeared and incarcerated without due process. The petitioners claim that the Erdogan regime systemically attacked the civilian population to safeguard their governmental policies. (Anne-Sophie Gayet “Turkey taken to International Court for ‘crimes against humanity’ ,” Euractiv, 2 March 2023)
French Court Auditor estimates Ukraine refugees to have received EUR 630 million aid in France
On 28 February, French Court Auditor estimated that they received 115,000 displaced Ukrainians who have been receiving EUR 630 million. Under the temporary protection regime, they have been receiving satisfactory conditions that allow them to settle freely while being protected by unprecedented social rights, access to health care, school and emergency accommodation. The accommodation cost per place and per day could be aggregated to EUR 38 with shelter provision under common law. Since the end of 2020, nearly 900 homes have received financial aid from the state with EUR 150 enveloped every month aggregating to some EUR 786,000. There has been rising concern over the long-term nature of the war and how much can the can state provide. (“ Reception of Ukrainian refugees in France: after the emergency, the challenge of duration,” Les Echos, 28 February 2023)
ENERGY
French National Rally party proposed a mandate for environmental concerns
On 01 March, French National Rally a far-right party proposed their environmental concerns and the need for a local response to the global disorder. According to them, it is absolutely prohibited to build more wind turbines in the countryside because they destroy the landscape. When it comes to agriculture, they should not just focus on halting pesticide use which is vital for market competition and mostly affects the farmer's livelihood. The manifesto proposed states to look inwards, pushing preference for French products and French jobs and French investment in French companies. The critics have called out these acts as a “Façade manifesto” and a move to flatter the electorate rather than being backed with research and data a political move to garner attention. (Davide Basso, “Sovereignty and conservatism: Environmental approach of France’s far-right” Euractiv, 2 March 2023)
Danish Energy agency halts ‘Open Door’ policy suspends offshore wind turbine projects
On 02 March, Nord News reports that the Danish Energy agency have suspended the “Open door” policy halting 28 wind turbine projects that are worth billions. This came as a shock as the open-door policy allowed companies to submit a project proposal to municipalities rather than them only tenders for the set company for particular projects. Critics argue that this is a major setback for green transitioning measures as companies have done the major groundwork to build on green energy initiatives where the government have suddenly “pulled the plug”. The critics are asking for a reason for this suspension as they slammed the offshore wind turbine projects. (“Offshore wind turbine projects on the rocks,” Nord News, 2 March 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
Meloni and Modi discuss future peace negotiations for Ukraine war
On 02 March, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and stated that India is a major player in brokering peace between Ukraine and Russia. Meloni said that India is well aware of Italy's support of Ukraine and that she hopes to see India facilitating the ending of hostilities between the two countries as the G20 president. They further discussed strategic bilateral ties aiming for increased trade cooperation where it now stands at EUR 15 billion a double amount since 2020. Both leaders agreed on how more can be done to further their bilateral relations and that they should take proactive measures to increase ties. (“India can facilitate 'just peace' in Ukraine – Meloni,” Ansa.it, 02 March 2023)
EU to aid Somalia for smooth transition of powers
On 02 March, The Political and Security Committee of the EU agreed to provide support for the Somalian National Army (SNA) and the African Union of Transition Mission Somalia (ATMIS). The aim is to hand over responsibility to both institutions and to strengthen their capacities. EU plans to provide with EUR 85 million for ATMIS and EUR 23 million for SNA. This would provide ATMIS with troops allowance for African deployed soldiers and for SNA it would aid the production of non-lethal equipment and infrastructure work under the supervision of the EU. (“EU support to Somalia: Council approves further support under the European Peace Facility to the Somali National Army and to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS),” European Council, 02 March 2023)